| 01 September 2010
SATURDAY NIGHT SLANT
I want to express some gratitude to the readers of the Saturday Night Slant, who visited during the month of August more than any other month in the site's history. In fact, August more than doubled the Slant's previous high in terms of visitors in a month.
With the addition of Kenny Hill to the team, the Slant produced 21 posts in August.
Please spread the word to your friends who you think may enjoy the site. And don't forget about all the different ways you can follow SNS. The Twitter account has been pretty active, and you can look on the right side of the home screen to see what you're missing if you're not signed up. The e-mail newsletter list has been growing too. So if you're not signed up for that, you may want to consider it.
NORTH CAROLINA PREVIEW
I must say that it's nice to finally be putting together a game preview. After a long and uneasy off-season for LSU fans, the time has arrived for this coaching staff to either defecate or vacate. The start to a critical regular season for the LSU Football program starts where everyone hopes it will also end...in Atlanta, GA in the Georgia Dome.
A cloud of uncertainty surrounds this neutral site game against North Carolina. Numerous Carolina players are involved in some eligibility issues that involve both agents and academic misconduct. Thus far, star defensive tackle Marvin Austin has been suspended for the game. The school may hold a number of other players out of the game in order to prevent any future forfeiture of games or NCAA penalties should they be declared ineligible once the investigation is complete. What we do not know is what other players will be held out. The Tar Heels have numerous standout players on their defense, many of which are rumored to be among those involved. But the school is not releasing any other names right now and I suspect they will not until game time. So for the sake of this preview, I am going to assume that everyone will play with the exception of Austin.
Regardless of whether all or none of the Heels' stars play in the game, I believe this contest to be 100% about LSU. LSU is a better team and if they show up and play a good game, they will win. That seems simple enough. But the problem is that LSU did not play many good games in 2009 and while this is a new team, last year's memories are still fresh in our minds until shown otherwise.
Has Jordan Jefferson improved? How much of an impact, good or bad, will the changes to the coaching staff have? Will Russell Shepard be involved and how big of a difference will he make? Can LSU's defense take the next step from being statistically good to actually good? These are all the questions that will begin to get answered Saturday Night. Without further ado...
When North Carolina Has The Ball
I expect this to be a fairly lopsided matchup. LSU has what looks to be a solid and very fast defense while North Carolina's offense does not look much different from last year's unit which ranked 108th in the nation. Compiling those woeful stats against ACC defenses does not speak well for last year's unit.
The Heels return multi-year starter T.J. Yates at quarterback. Yates was pushed by freshman Brian Renner but ultimately won the job. Yates had a nice completion percentage in 2009 (60%) but he threw for just 2,136 yards which gave him one of the lowest Passing Yards per Attempt numbers in all of college football. He threw 14 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. He ranked 97th in the nation in Passing Efficiency. To sum up, he was pretty bad in 2009 and was part of the problem, not part of the solution. Yates is entering his fourth year as starter, so this is not a case of a young guy who took his lumps and is now ready to break out. Hell, he took his lumps way back in 2007. It's just that Yates has not been real good for three years. While he can certainly improve from last year, he should not strike much fear into the hearts of LSU's defenders. Yates is also not a real mobile guy, which obviously benefits the Tigers.
Senior running back Shaun Draughn may represent North Carolina's best chance for offensive success in this game. Draughn is nothing too special, but he averaged a respectable 4.57 yards per carry while racking up 567 yards prior to suffering an injury. His backup, Ryan Houston, rushed for 713 yards but only went for 3.73 per carry. If I'm North Carolina, I'm running these two guys, especially Draughn, right at LSU's defense. The biggest question mark on LSU's defense is how they will handle a straight ahead, physical running attack. If these guys look like Washington's Chris Polk in last year's opener, then LSU may be in some trouble. On the flip side, LSU's focus needs to be on shutting these two guys down. If they do that, then everything else will take care of itself. Yates is not a guy that will consistently make LSU pay on 3rd and long.
At receiver, Carolina has a future NFLer in Greg Little. Little is a big, physical target at 6'3" 210 pounds who caught 62 passes in 2009. He is the guy they will try to go to on third downs and to try and muster a big play out of. This seems easy for LSU, right? Put #7 on Little. End of story. Let's hope it's that simple. Remember that in a crucial situation at the end of the Georgia game last year, star receiver A.J. Green caught a touchdown over.....Chris Hawkins. LSU inexplicably did not have Peterson covering Green in that situation. Let's hope he's glued to Little on Saturday. Erik Highsmith is another very capable guy who will get some looks.
Up front, North Carolina is solid. Not great. Not terrible. Just pretty mediocre. They do not have any All-ACC candidates. But they do have a distinct size advantage, especially looking at their tackles against LSU's smaller defensive ends. Can they enable the backs to pick up decent yardage? Can they hold off LSU's quick defensive ends? I'm not sure. I tend to think the line is going to struggle some; however, they are accustomed to facing top notch defensive linemen in practice each day. So they will not be too overwhelmed by what LSU throws at them.
This seems like a game where LSU would be better served playing Kevin Minter at middle linebacker and Kelvin Sheppard on the outside while mostly using one of the bigger options (Craig Loston or Eric Reid) at free safety. The focus should be on shutting down North Carolina's runnnig game since Yates does not pose any unique threat as a passer.
When LSU Has The Ball
Since we can only look at last year's numbers, this matchup also looks pretty lopsided in favor of the defense. North Carolina had one of the nation's top defenses in 2009 and returns numerous star players. LSU had the worst offense in the SEC. The Tar Heels have All-Americans at every level of their defense, and 10 of their 11 starters are on one of Phil Steele's All-ACC teams (either 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th team). However, I believe LSU's offense to be improved, with enough play makers at the skill positions to be the difference in the game.
Unlike T.J. Yates, LSU's Jordan Jefferson was a young quarterback who was taking his lumps in 2009. Using history as an indicator, it's quite possible, if not probable, that Jefferson will show considerable improvement in his second year leading the offense. North Carolina's defensive line will undoubtedly pressure Jefferson in obvious passing situations so the key for LSU, and Jefferson, is to avoid those situations entirely. With LSU's supposed re-dedication to a physical running game, expect the Tigers to try and pound the ball as much as possible. But will it work?
LSU's line will have their hands full against North Carolina's vaunted front seven. Not having to deal with Marvin Austin will help but defensive end Robert Quinn is as good as you'll find anywhere in the country. Quinn racked up 19 tackles for loss in 2009. Linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter are both All-ACC players as well.
Running backs Stevan Ridley and Richard Murphy will see the bulk of the work for the Tigers. Ridley is a very tough runner who will be counted on to grind out yardage. Murphy will likely be used a bit more while Jefferson is in the shotgun and the defense is spread out. Expect LSU to try and counter North Carolina's talent by keeping them on their heels. Look for some quick throws to the receivers, especially to Russell Shepard in the slot. Also expect Shepard to carry the ball some and don't be surprised to see freshman Spencer Ware operate out of the Wildcat. If LSU can keep the Heels' guessing, then they might have more success when running between the tackles and when trying to throw the ball down the field.
The Heels also have a good secondary with cornerback Kendric Burney and safety Denuta Williams leading the way. But despite their talent, this group will not be ready to consistently handle LSU's receiving corps. Terrance Toliver, Reuben Randle, and Russell Shepard will be a handful. The Heels' best pass defense will be a strong pass rush because if given time, these receivers will be open.
I believe Russell Shepard is the key to this game on offense. Not only does it make sense to get the ball to the very talented sophomore, but his unique talents can keep the Heels off balance. If LSU's offense becomes too predictable in terms of run vs. pass on any given play, North Carolina's defense could eat up the Tigers. Their defense is just too good.
The second biggest key is quarterback Jordan Jefferson. Of course Jefferson needs to take care of the football and get rid of it quickly. Turnovers and sacks will lose this game for LSU. But Jefferson will also have a few opportunities to make big plays in this game. When those opportunities present themselves, Jefferson needs to take advantage. Those big plays will be the difference in the game.
Lastly, the offensive line must show up. I expect this group to be much improved, but they're facing a very tough task against North Carolina's front seven. They need to at least hold their own so that Jefferson and the play makers have a chance to do their thing.
Special Teams
These teams look pretty similar in the kicking game. Both return a very reliable senior kicker. LSU's Josh Jasper converted 17 of 20 attempts while North Carolina's Casey Barth hit 21 of 25.
Both teams have a returning punter who was OK with a freshman challenging the veteran. Both LSU's Derek Helton and Carolina's Grant Shallock averaged right at 40 yards per punt. Heels freshman C.J. Feagles, son of long time NFL punter Jeff Feagles, is pushing Shallock while freshman Brad Wing is pushing Helton for LSU. One key difference in the punting game is the coverage. LSU finished 28th nationally with a 37.38 net punting average. North Carolina was way down at 70th with a 35.23 average.
In the return game, LSU was tops in the nation last year; however, speedy return man Trindon Holliday is gone. Cornerback Patrick Peterson is taking his place, and I expect he'll be very good in that role. Da'Norris Searcy returns for North Carolina after finishing fifth in the nation with a 14.5 yards per return average in 2009.
Covering kickoffs, LSU was third in the nation while North Carolina came in at 49th.
Both have reliable place kickers. Both have similar punting situations. Both have dangerous return men. LSU has the slight edge in covering kicks and punts.
Overall, these two teams are awfully similar. North Carolina has a bit more star power on defense while LSU has more play makers on offense. In the end, LSU's defense will be plenty good enough to keep Carolina's offense in check. However, I think LSU's big play capability on offense, along with the Heel quarterback's tendency to turn the ball over, will be the difference.
My prediction: LSU 23 North Carolina 10
