Explaining SEC Tiebreaker Scenarios

 

After a topsy-turvy weekend of college football, what seemed like the unlikeliest of scenarios will likely play out with the SEC West holding the top three spots in the latest unveiling of the BCS rankings. Already LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas are 1-2-3 in the most recent AP and USA Today Coaches' Poll.

The chaos ended late Saturday as three teams ranked in the five all lost. #2 Oklahoma State, #4 Oregon, and #5 Oklahoma were all upset making it the first time since October 11, 2008 that three top five teams lost in the same weekend. That year #1 Oklahoma, #3 Missouri, and #4 LSU were upset.

It was only the first time in 10 years that such a feat has been accomplished and only the second time in the history of the BCS which started in 1998.

With three SEC teams from the same division holding the top three spots the question remains – who will go to the SEC championship game?

For #1 LSU the answer is simple – just win, baby! As only one of two remaining undefeated teams, and the last one in the SEC, all LSU has to do is defeat Arkansas in Baton Rouge the Friday after Thanksgiving. Do that and the Tigers will go to Atlanta to play Georgia, who wrapped up their fifth SEC East division title after beating Kentucky Saturday in Athens.

What happens if Arkansas goes into Baton Rouge and upsets LSU just like they did in 2007? That all depends on what happens in the Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn.

If Auburn wins then Arkansas will go to the SEC championship game because it would come down the head-to-head record between Arkansas and LSU which Arkansas will have.

However, if Arkansas wins and Alabama wins to create a three way tie? That's when things become a little tricky.

All three teams – Alabama, Arkansas, LSU – would have 7-1 conference records (and 11-1 overall records). In that case, SEC tiebreaker guidelines detail that the conference winner would be determined by the final regular season BCS standings.

But the final BCS standings don't necessarily reflect who will win the tiebreaker because it's all but certain that highest and second highest ranked teams would be within five places of each other. If it comes down to that then it would be the head-to-head winner of the top two teams going into the title game.

Here's how it breaks down in layman's terms if LSU loses to Arkansas and Alabama beats Auburn:

If LSU and Alabama are ranked the highest in the BCS then LSU goes to Atlanta.

If Alabama and Arkansas are ranked the highest in the BCS then Alabama goes to Atlanta.

If LSU and Arkansas are ranked the highest in the BCS then Arkansas goes to Atlanta.

In order to avoid this madness all LSU has to do is win against Arkansas.