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Predicting LSU's TV Schedule
On Monday, the SEC announced the television schedule for the first three weeks of the 2012 football season. Luckily for LSU fans, the Tigers will be playing three consecutive night games to kick things off. So I thought we'd take a look at the remainder of the season on a week by week basis and give a best guess as to when the Tigers may be playing.
To start, here is the schedule for the first three weeks.
Week 1 - 9/1
Thursday - South Carolina @ Vanderbilt - 6:00 - ESPN
Thursday - Texas A&M @ LA Tech - 6:30 - ESPNU
Friday - Tennessee @ NC State - 6:30 - ESPNU
Buffalo @ Georgia - 11:00 - SEC
Clemson vs. Auburn - 6:00 - ESPN
Michigan vs. Alabama - 7:00 - ABC
North Texas @ LSU - 6:00 - ESPNU
Sunday - Kentucky @ Louisville - 2:30 ESPN
Week 2 - 9/8
Auburn @ Mississippi State - 11:00 - SEC
Florida @ Texas A&M - 2:30 - ESPN
Washington @ LSU - 6:00 - ESPN
Georgia @ Missouri - 6:45 - ESPN2
Vanderbilt @ Northwestern - 7:00 - B1G Network
Week 3 - 9/15
ULM @ Auburn - 11:00 - SEC
Preysbyterian @ Vanderbilt - 11:30 - CSS
Alabama @ Arkansas - 2:30 - CBS
Texas A&M @ SMU - 2:30 - FSN
Florida @ Tennessee - 5:00 - ESPN
Mississippi State @ Troy - 6:00 - ESPN3
Arizona State @ Missouri - 6:00 - ESPN2
UAB @ South Carolina - 6:00 - FSN
Florida Atlantic @ Georgia - 6:30 - CSS
Idaho @ LSU - 7:00 - Tigervision
Texas @ Ole Miss - 8:15 - ESPN
So that we know how these selections are made, here is the criteria used each week:
1. CBS SEC Game of the Week 3:30 PM ET beginning September 15 and running through the SEC Championship Game
- Exclusive Window (No other SEC games may begin between 3:30 and 7 PM)
- November 3rd will feature a game TBA at 3:30 ET and Alabama at LSU at 8 PM ET. No other SEC game can begin after 12:30 ET
- CBS also has the rights to one additional Noon/3:30 double header on a different date. CBS does not have an exclusive window for the Noon ET game on that date
- No one institution may be shown more than 6 times on the SEC Game of the Week
2/3. ESPN/ESPN2 7 PM ET-8 PM ET throughout the entire season
- During the weekends of September 1 and September 8, ESPN/ESPN2 will have the first choice of any game hosted by an SEC school
- On November 3rd, ESPN/ESPN2 will receive the third choice and must televise any game(s) selected between Noon and 12:30 ET
- ESPN will receive the first choice ahead of CBS during a weekend to be announced as compensation for the rights to LSU at Alabama in 2011
4. SEC Network 12:21 PM ET throughout the entire season
5. ESPNU Noon-12:30 PM ET or 7:00 ET throughout the entire season
- The game time is determined by ESPN on a week-to-week basis
6. FS South OR CSS Noon-12:30 PM ET or 7:00 ET throughout the entire season
- The game time and network is determined by ESPN on a week-to-week basis
7. FS South OR CSS Noon-12:30 PM ET or 7:00 ET throughout the entire season
- The game time and network is determined by ESPN on a week-to-week basis
One important note to take away from that is that as compensation for allowing CBS to move the LSU vs. Alabama game to a night time slot last year, ESPN will receive first choice of games for a weekend that is to be determined in 2012. So for one week this year, that will cause a shake up in the selection process. You should also note that CBS does not televise a SEC game for the first two weeks of the season due to tennis. Yes....tennis.
Here is my week by week take on how things could play out with a confidence rating for my predictions. Note that game times that have already been determined are in bold.
Week 4 - 9/22
Ole Miss @ Tulane - 11:00 - FSN
LSU @ Auburn
Rutgers @ Arkansas
Kentucky @ Florida
Vanderbilt @ Georgia
Missouri @ South Carolina
Akron @ Tennessee
Florida Atlantic @ Alabama
South Alabama @ Mississippi State
South Carolina State @ Texas A&M
Thoughts: I think LSU is destined for CBS here. It's not entirely out of the question that Auburn starts their season 1-2. They have a game against Clemson and they travel to Starkville in the first two weeks. If that's the case, then Missouri @ South Carolina may possibly end up on CBS. I think Missouri would have to be 3-0 for that to even be considered.
Prediction: 2:30 on CBS (75%)
Week 5 - 9/29
Towson at LSU
Arkansas @ Texas A&M
Ole Miss @ Alabama
Tennessee @ Georgia
Missouri @ UCF
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Thoughts: LSU will almost certainly end up at night on Tigervision, ESPNU, or FSN. The Tennessee/Georgia contest in Athens looks like the front runner for the CBS game; although, Texas A&M at Arkansas may get a look. That South Carolina/Kentucky match up has "JP" written all over it.
Prediction: 6:00 on ESPNU (99% at night)
Week 6 - 10/6
LSU @ Florida
Arkansas @ Auburn
Mississippi State @ Kentucky
Vanderbilt @ Missouri
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss
South Carolina @ Georgia
Thoughts: If South Carolina and Georgia take care of their business, both could be undefeated, and would would be a strong contender for CBS. But if Florida and LSU are both undefeated, then that is the choice for sure. The Gators have trips to College Station and Knoxville, so what if they are 3-1? This one is up in the air and totally depends on the outcomes of the first few weeks. The other game is sure to end up on ESPN at night, along with Arkansas @ Auburn. Missouri or Texas A&M may get their first taste of the SEC Network and morning football.
Prediction: 6:00 on ESPN (55%)
Week 7 - 10/13
South Carolina @ LSU
Kentucky @ Arkansas
Alabama @ Missouri
Auburn @ Ole Miss
Florida @ Vanderbilt
Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Thoughts: This seems like a lock for CBS. If Missouri is undefeated, that will mean they defeated South Carolina on the way, and their game hosting Alabama would then become the choice. But that's a big IF. At this point, LSU's game against South Carolina (preseason Top-10) looks like one of the best conference match-ups of the entire year. So I'll go out on a limb...a very hopeful and biased limb...and say that this is the week that ESPN takes their first pick of games and selects a night game in Death Valley. If my fun prediction doesn't happen, then LSU is 90% on CBS.
Prediction: 7:00 on ESPN (20%)
Week 8 - 10/20
LSU @ Texas A&M
South Carolina @ Florida
Auburn @ Vanderbilt
Middle Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Alabama @ Tennessee
Georgia @ Kentucky
Auburn @ Vanderbilt
Thoughts: CBS has a few options here between LSU/A&M, South Carolina/Florida, and Tennessee/Alabama. In years past, I would just assume that the Vols and the Tide would get the nod because....well, just because it's the third Saturday in October and that's what happens. At this point in the season, I suspect A&M will be a one or two loss team at most and therefore think LSU will be on CBS this week.
Prediction: 2:30 on CBS (65%)
Week 9 - 10/27
Texas A&M @ Auburn
Ole Miss @ Arkansas
Mississippi State @ Alabama
Florida vs. Georgia - CBS
Kentucky @ Missouri
Tennessee @ South Carolina
UMASS @ Vanderbilt
Thoughts: LSU is off and CBS has already made the decision to televise Florida vs. Georgia as their game of the week.
Week 10 - 11/3
Alabama @ LSU - 7:00 - CBS
Missouri @ Florida
New Mexico State @ Auburn
Tulsa @ Arkansas
Ole Miss @ Georgia
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
Troy @ Tennessee
Thoughts: This week marks the week of the annual CBS double-header. The LSU / Alabama game will be at night and the Missouri / Florida contest looks like the next best bet for the CBS game at 2:30. Per rule, all other games must start no later than 11:30 on this weekend.
Prediction: 7:00 on CBS (100%)
Week 11 - 11/10
Mississippi State @ LSU
Georgia @ Auburn
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss
ULL @ Florida
Texas A&M @ Alabama
Arkansas @ South Carolina
Missouri @ Tennessee
Thoughts: This week is the other CBS double-header, with games at 11:00 and 2:30. I think Georgia/Auburn and Arkansas/South Carolina are the top two candidates to land on CBS. That SHOULD put A&M/Alabama and LSU/Mississippi State on ESPN and ESPN2 at night. Even though CBS is televising a game at 11:00, the SEC Network still has their usual morning kickoff as well. An outside chance exists that LSU/State could somehow drop to that spot, but I think it's doubtful.
Prediction: 6:00 on ESPN2 (80% at night)
Week 12 - 11/17
Ole Miss @ LSU
Arkansas @ Mississippi State
Syracuse @ Missouri
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Jacksonville State @ Florida
Georgia Southern @ Georgia
Samford @ Kentucky
Wofford @ South Carolina
Western Carolina @ Alabama
Alabama A&M @ Auburn
Sam Houston State @ Texas A&M
Thoughts: LOTS of rent-a-wins this week for some reason. But that really leaves just LSU/Ole Miss and Arkansas/State as the only viable options for CBS. LSU's best hope is that Ole Miss is SO awful that CBS can't possibly justify choosing them for the game of the week. In 2011, CBS chose State/Arkansas for this weekend and LSU played Ole Miss at night, so we can cross our fingers that it happens again. It's not out of the question that State is 6-4 heading into this game, so that game could be more attractive. But looking at things right now, LSU's game has to be considered the favorite for CBS.
Prediction: 2:30 on CBS (60%)
Week 12 - 11/24
Friday - LSU @ Arkansas - 1:30 - CBS
Florida @ Florida State
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss
Auburn @ Alabama
Georgia Tech @ Georgia
Kentucky @ Tennessee
Missouri @ Texas A&M
South Carolina @ Clemson
Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt
Thoughts: It has already been decided that LSU will play Arkansas on Friday after Thanksgiving at 1:30 on CBS. So not much intrigue here. I fully expect the Iron Bowl to be CBS's choice the following day. ESPN will then have a number of games to choose from for all of their time slots.
Prediction: 1:30 on CBS on Friday (100%)
So there you have it. If I'm right, LSU will play just one day game in Tiger Stadium this year, and it will come against Ole Miss in mid November when the weather is nice. However, I'll admit that the odds that my goofy prediction for the South Carolina game won't come true, which puts LSU in the sunlight twice.
Regardless, it's a better home slate than we got last year in terms of being tailgating friendly...and it starts in just over 45 days!
